Captain America: Brave New World’s opening domestic box office projection leaves a lot to be desired.
Deadlinereports the number to be “$95M+ over 4-days.” That’sThursday February 13(previews) throughSunday the 16th.
Deadline further elaborated:
Tickets went on sale on Monday, and we hear that they’re currently pacing 15% behind Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 which opened to $118.4M. They’re also well above Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings ($94.6M 4-day) in addition to Black Adam ($67M) and The Flash ($55M).
When $100 Million Is Just Okay
For most films, hitting $100M on opening weekend is a triumph. ButMarvelmovies have been so successful that reaching $100M is the bare minimum.
There have been 34 MCU films, and 20 have had opening weekends of at least $100M+. 12 have been $150M+. 6 have been $200+.
Of the 14 that failed to break $100M on opening weekend, six were in the first 10 releases, between 2008 and 2014. Between 2015 and the pandemic, Marvel released 13 films and only 3 failed to reach $100M domestically in those first few days.
And while much has been said about recent quality issues in the MCU, sinceNo Way Homereleased in December 2021, six of the next seven releases all broke $100M.The Marvelswas the one outlier, having the lowest opening box office ever at $46.1M.
Especially coming off the behemoth that wasDeadpool & Wolverine, with a worldwide box office of $1.3 billion, you’d hope the positive momentum would be enough to carryBrave New Worldacross the triple-digit threshold.
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WhyCaptain America: Brave New WorldMay Disappoint
The major thing working againstBrave New Worldis the lack ofSam Rogers. It’s similar to how musicians always have to play their hits at a concert or the crowd is disappointed. Movie-goers like their legacy characters.
Even though Anthony Mackie has been in the MCU as Sam Wilson/Falcon sinceWinter Soldierin 2014, he’s not Sam Rogers. That’s enough for some people to wait for streaming or skip the movie entirely. Despite this being the fourthCaptain Americafilm, it’s essentially a reboot.
If you go back over the MCU’s box office history, intro films perform the worst. Nine of the 14 sub-$100M pictures were a character’s first standalone picture. The only characters who avoided that lack of interest were Spider-Man, Black Panther, and Captain Marvel.
WhyCaptain America: Brave New WorldWill Succeed
For nearly a decade, the MCU was the king of cinema. But the 2020s have been the most problematic. Bob Iger was the one who had empoweredKevin Feigeduring the MCUs early years. When Iger retired in 2020 and Bob Chapek took over, Feige lost a lot of control. For two years, Feige and Chapek were in conflict over the MCU.
Because of that, and for innumerable other reasons, in November 2022, Disney’s board asked Chapek to step down so Iger could take charge once again. Suddenly, Feige’s biggest and most important supporter was back.
you may viewThe Marvelsas the last film of the Feige-Chapek showdown andDeadpool & Wolverineas the return of what the MCU had been. Feige has something to prove, not only to people like Chapek who had tried to take control, but to the rest of the world complaining about the dip in MCU quality, that the king still has the crown.
Because of that, I’m expectingBrave New Worldto really blow people away and for that word of mouth to carry it past the $100M mark.
